Hypotheses · overlay · IQ143c-one-off-jumping-error-no

IQ143c: one off jumping error no

PROMISINGgreenPassed discovery and is being attacked. Most promising ideas die here.

best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.879 on 161 bets

Starts the thread “IQ143c: one off jumping error no” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

LOOK: one-off jumping error in a chase, well beaten, and it averaged in the worse half.

The rule

(race_type = 'Chase' AND remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)) AND s_jump_index_pct_prev IS NOT NULL AND NOT (s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5)

Reads: race_type, remarked_last3, jumping_errors_last3, last_jumping_error, last_position, last_beaten_lengths, s_jump_index_pct_prev

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: (race_type = 'Chase' AND remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)) AND s_jump_index_pct_prev IS NOT NULL AND NOT (s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5)
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 161
A/E: 1.88; winners vs the prices
SP return: +54.9%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +88.5%; 161 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.93

Strike rate 19.3%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half941.45

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ143c-one-off-jumping-error-no Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.879 on 161 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ143c-one-off-jumping-error-no (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ143c-one-off-jumping-error-no: IQ143c: one off jumping error no (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.