IQ15: slow to recover time after time

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: among the slowest quarter of the field to recover after its obstacles in two or more of its last three runs in today's code.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_recovery_slow3 >= 2

Reads: race_type, s_recovery_slow3

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_recovery_slow3 >= 2

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_recovery_slow3 >= 2) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "stiff fences or high casualties",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_recovery_slow3 >= 2) AND ((track_fences = 'stiff' OR track_casualties = 'high'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "galloping track",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_recovery_slow3 >= 2) AND (track_character = 'galloping')"
  },
  {
    "name": "sharp track",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_recovery_slow3 >= 2) AND (track_sharpness >= 2)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info sharp track · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,685

A/E

1.00

winners vs the prices

SP return

-28.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-5.1%

1,685 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ15-slow-to-recover-time-after-time Discovery → KILLED import: best [stiff fences or high casualties] AMBER A/E 1.128 on 1023 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ15-slow-to-recover-time-after-time (sharp track): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ15-slow-to-recover-time-after-time (galloping track): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ15-slow-to-recover-time-after-time (stiff fences or high casualties): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ15-slow-to-recover-time-after-time (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ15-slow-to-recover-time-after-time (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea IQ15-slow-to-recover-time-after-time: IQ15: slow to recover time after time (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.