Hypotheses · limited-v-broad · IQ152c-poor-jump-index-broad

IQ152c: poor jump index broad

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] RED A/E 0.998 on 4139 bets

Starts the thread “IQ152c: poor jump index broad” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Broad failure: Jump Index in the bottom quarter and two or three of the others in their bad quarter too. Predicted the more ominous.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.25 AND ((l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) + (l_speed_lost_pct <= 0.25) + (l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.75)) >= 2

Reads: race_type, l_same_code, last_position, l_jump_index_pct, l_lgj_pct, l_speed_lost_pct, l_recovery_time_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.25 AND ((l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) + (l_speed_lost_pct <= 0.25) + (l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.75)) >= 2
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 4,139
A/E: 1.00; winners vs the prices
SP return: -25.1%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +18.5%; 4,138 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 7.9%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half2,9220.99

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ152c-poor-jump-index-broad Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.998 on 4139 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ152c-poor-jump-index-broad (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ152c-poor-jump-index-broad: IQ152c: poor jump index broad (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.