IQ20: one bad jumping day from a good jumper

Mechanism and rationale

Its latest run in today's code was in the bottom quarter of the field for ground gained jumping, when its earlier runs averaged in the better 40%. A bad day, not a bad jumper: the measured version of the one-off jumping error.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_lgj_pct_last <= 0.25 AND s_lgj_pct_prev >= 0.6

Reads: race_type, s_lgj_pct_last, s_lgj_pct_prev

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_lgj_pct_last <= 0.25 AND s_lgj_pct_prev >= 0.6

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_lgj_pct_last <= 0.25 AND s_lgj_pct_prev >= 0.6) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "that run was its last run",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_lgj_pct_last <= 0.25 AND s_lgj_pct_prev >= 0.6) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_lgj_pct_last <= 0.25 AND s_lgj_pct_prev >= 0.6) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

499

A/E

1.07

winners vs the prices

SP return

-2.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+17.1%

498 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 16.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ20-one-bad-jumping-day-from-a-good-jumper Discovery → PROMISING import: best [that run was its last run] GREEN A/E 1.095 on 677 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ20-one-bad-jumping-day-from-a-good-jumper (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ20-one-bad-jumping-day-from-a-good-jumper (that run was its last run): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ20-one-bad-jumping-day-from-a-good-jumper (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ20-one-bad-jumping-day-from-a-good-jumper (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea IQ20-one-bad-jumping-day-from-a-good-jumper: IQ20: one bad jumping day from a good jumper (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.