IQ37: lost ground jumping without going fast

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: last run in the slower half for speed into its obstacles and still in the bottom quarter for ground gained at them. No excuse of pace: it jumps slowly.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_entry_speed_pct <= 0.5 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

Reads: race_type, l_entry_speed_pct, l_lgj_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_entry_speed_pct <= 0.5 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase today",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_entry_speed_pct <= 0.5 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_entry_speed_pct <= 0.5 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_entry_speed_pct <= 0.5 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

3,153

A/E

1.06

winners vs the prices

SP return

-11.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+6.9%

3,148 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 13.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ37-lost-ground-jumping-without-going-fast Discovery → PROMISING import: best [last run in today's code] GREEN A/E 1.095 on 6407 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ37-lost-ground-jumping-without-going-fast (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ37-lost-ground-jumping-without-going-fast (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ37-lost-ground-jumping-without-going-fast (chase today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ37-lost-ground-jumping-without-going-fast (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea IQ37-lost-ground-jumping-without-going-fast: IQ37: lost ground jumping without going fast (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.