IQ54: failed to finish jumping as usual

Mechanism and rationale

Failed to finish last time, in today's code, with a Jump Index no more than 0.15 below its own earlier average. Nothing unusual in the jumping: it was looked after, and the run can be ignored.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev >= -0.15

Reads: race_type, last_position, l_same_code, l_jump_index, s_jump_index_prev

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

0445e8b7b1247dcd1ef63a65df4738c1d35bc1d5386129ff776013941e117802

Frozen

13 Oct, 01:00

Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Direction

positive

Frozen in

research/experiments/raceiq/iq_holdout

Frozen on

2026-10-13

Id

IQ54-failed-to-finish-jumping-as-usual

Rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev >= -0.15

Result (from the archive)

info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,261

A/E

1.11

winners vs the prices

SP return

-18.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+10.6%

1,260 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 7.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Bets

2,028

14 Oct, 13:00

A/E

1.13

p = 0.074

BH threshold then

0.0034

over every vault test so far

Outcome

Failed

from the archive

Forward record

• forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info

  0 bets · · 15 Oct, 23:21

  Breakdown

  betsA/E0.71.01.3

  forward0–

• forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info

  0 bets · · 16 Oct, 23:21

  Breakdown

  betsA/E0.71.01.3

  forward0–

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. Job 2100 finished

   16 Oct, 23:21 · engine:compute-1

2. forward result for IQ54-failed-to-finish-jumping-as-usual (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info

   16 Oct, 23:21 · engine:evaluator

3. compute-1 took job 2100 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   16 Oct, 23:21 · compute-1

4. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   16 Oct, 23:21 · engine:scheduler

5. Job 8 finished

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:compute-2

6. forward result for IQ54-failed-to-finish-jumping-as-usual (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:evaluator

7. compute-2 took job 8 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   15 Oct, 23:21 · compute-2

8. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:scheduler

9. IQ54-failed-to-finish-jumping-as-usual Vault → SHADOW import: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.129 on 2028 (GB 1.128, IRE 1.136), p 0.0737 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests; LEARNINGS read it as holding

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

10. IQ54-failed-to-finish-jumping-as-usual Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

11. IQ54-failed-to-finish-jumping-as-usual Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

12. import result for IQ54-failed-to-finish-jumping-as-usual (discovery year (reference)): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

13. import result for IQ54-failed-to-finish-jumping-as-usual (Ireland): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

14. import result for IQ54-failed-to-finish-jumping-as-usual (Britain): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

15. import result for IQ54-failed-to-finish-jumping-as-usual (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

16. New idea IQ54-failed-to-finish-jumping-as-usual: IQ54: failed to finish jumping as usual (import)

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer