Hypotheses · jumping-holdout · IQ55-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-as-a-rule

IQ55: failed to finish poor jumper as a rule

KILLEDfailed the vaultFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.994 on 1560 (GB 1.005, IRE 0.95), p 0.5373 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

Starts the thread “IQ55: failed to finish poor jumper as a rule” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ holdout
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 2

Mechanism and rationale

Failed to finish last time, in today's code, from a horse whose earlier runs averaged in the worse 40% of its fields on Jump Index. The market reads the failure as proof; it is only the horse's usual round.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev <= 0.4

Reads: race_type, last_position, l_same_code, s_jump_index_pct_prev

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): 02331e79dfef7672e14c2a2b2fb7a1ac4dc27b3afc7a6777f65c664adef573b3
Frozen: 13 Oct, 01:00; Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Direction: positive
Frozen in: research/experiments/raceiq/iq_holdout
Frozen on: 2026-10-13
Id: IQ55-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-as-a-rule
Rule: race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev <= 0.4

Result (from the archive)

info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 964
A/E: 1.13; winners vs the prices
SP return: -29.2%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +15.7%; 963 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 7.4%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-220–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Bets: 1,560; 14 Oct, 13:00
A/E: 0.99; p = 0.54
BH threshold then: 0.0034; over every vault test so far
Outcome: Failed; from the archive

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ55-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-as-a-rule Vault → KILLEDfailed the vault import: holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.994 on 1560 (GB 1.005, IRE 0.95), p 0.5373 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
IQ55-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-as-a-rule Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
IQ55-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-as-a-rule Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ55-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-as-a-rule (discovery year (reference)): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ55-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-as-a-rule (Ireland): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ55-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-as-a-rule (Britain): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ55-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-as-a-rule (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ55-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-as-a-rule: IQ55: failed to finish poor jumper as a rule (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Failed the vault.