Hypotheses · jumping-holdout · IQ56-failed-to-finish-good-jumper-normal-day
IQ56: failed to finish good jumper normal day
forward A/E 0.0 on 0 bets, SP ROI None%, BSP ROI None% (p None)
Starts the thread “IQ56: failed to finish good jumper normal day” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ holdout
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 4
Mechanism and rationale
A: failed to finish last time in today's code; earlier runs averaged in the better half of its fields on Jump Index, and this run was no more than 0.15 below its own average.
The rule
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5 AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev >= -0.15Reads: race_type, last_position, l_same_code, s_jump_index_pct_prev, l_jump_index, s_jump_index_prev
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- e6dc697302b9b1df2ad0577631302fc051a75b17fa37a8ca57f805c4e2de1177
- Frozen
- 13 Oct, 01:00
- Nothing in the definition can change after this.
- Direction
positive
- Frozen in
research/experiments/raceiq/iq_holdout
- Frozen on
2026-10-13
- Id
IQ56-failed-to-finish-good-jumper-normal-day
- Rule
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5 AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev >= -0.15
Result (from the archive)
info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 552
- A/E
- 1.02
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -8.3%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +30.3%
- 551 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 8.0%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
- Bets
- 838
- 14 Oct, 13:00
- A/E
- 1.22
- p = 0.047
- BH threshold then
- 0.0034
- over every vault test so far
- Outcome
- Failed
- from the archive
Forward record
- forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info
0 bets · · 15 Oct, 23:21
Breakdown
betsA/E0.71.01.3forward0–Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. - forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info
0 bets · · 16 Oct, 23:21
Breakdown
betsA/E0.71.01.3forward0–
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
Job 2101 finished
· engine:compute-1
forward result for IQ56-failed-to-finish-good-jumper-normal-day (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info
· engine:evaluator
compute-1 took job 2101 (forward_check, attempt 1)
· compute-1
Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system
· engine:scheduler
Job 9 finished
· engine:compute-2
forward result for IQ56-failed-to-finish-good-jumper-normal-day (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info
· engine:evaluator
compute-2 took job 9 (forward_check, attempt 1)
· compute-2
Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system
· engine:scheduler
IQ56-failed-to-finish-good-jumper-normal-day Vault → SHADOW import: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.219 on 838 (GB 1.193, IRE 1.334), p 0.0468 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
· importer
IQ56-failed-to-finish-good-jumper-normal-day Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault
· importer
IQ56-failed-to-finish-good-jumper-normal-day Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen
· importer
import result for IQ56-failed-to-finish-good-jumper-normal-day (discovery year (reference)): info
· importer
import result for IQ56-failed-to-finish-good-jumper-normal-day (Ireland): info
· importer
import result for IQ56-failed-to-finish-good-jumper-normal-day (Britain): info
· importer
import result for IQ56-failed-to-finish-good-jumper-normal-day (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info
· importer
New idea IQ56-failed-to-finish-good-jumper-normal-day: IQ56: failed to finish good jumper normal day (import)
· importer