Hypotheses · jumping-holdout · IQ58-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-bad-day

IQ58: failed to finish poor jumper bad day

KILLEDfailed the vaultFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.789 on 505 (GB 0.753, IRE 0.908), p 0.9209 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

Starts the thread “IQ58: failed to finish poor jumper bad day” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ holdout
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 2

Mechanism and rationale

D: failed to finish last time in today's code; earlier runs averaged in the worse 40% of its fields on Jump Index, and this run was 0.5 or more below its own average.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev <= 0.4 AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev <= -0.5

Reads: race_type, last_position, l_same_code, s_jump_index_pct_prev, l_jump_index, s_jump_index_prev

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): fb80c33a26c2cb9f3b873b5876f31c4a99e5739c4352356fb047174e5085ad3b
Frozen: 13 Oct, 01:00; Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Direction: positive
Frozen in: research/experiments/raceiq/iq_holdout
Frozen on: 2026-10-13
Id: IQ58-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-bad-day
Rule: race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev <= 0.4 AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev <= -0.5

Result (from the archive)

info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 343
A/E: 1.05; winners vs the prices
SP return: -27.5%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +19.9%; 342 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 7.6%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-220–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Bets: 505; 14 Oct, 13:00
A/E: 0.79; p = 0.92
BH threshold then: 0.0034; over every vault test so far
Outcome: Failed; from the archive

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ58-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-bad-day Vault → KILLEDfailed the vault import: holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.789 on 505 (GB 0.753, IRE 0.908), p 0.9209 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
IQ58-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-bad-day Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
IQ58-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-bad-day Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ58-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-bad-day (discovery year (reference)): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ58-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-bad-day (Ireland): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ58-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-bad-day (Britain): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ58-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-bad-day (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ58-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-bad-day: IQ58: failed to finish poor jumper bad day (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Failed the vault.