IQ82: jumps folds when challenged

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: jumps; folded under a late challenge in two or more earlier runs in today's code and has never resisted one.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_folded_n >= 2 AND s_resist_n = 0

Reads: race_type, s_folded_n, s_resist_n

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_folded_n >= 2 AND s_resist_n = 0

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_folded_n >= 2 AND s_resist_n = 0) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "stiff finish",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_folded_n >= 2 AND s_resist_n = 0) AND (track_stiff_finish = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "three miles or more",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_folded_n >= 2 AND s_resist_n = 0) AND (distance_yards >= 5280)"
  },
  {
    "name": "ten runners or fewer",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_folded_n >= 2 AND s_resist_n = 0) AND (field_size <= 10)"
  },
  {
    "name": "soft or heavy",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_folded_n >= 2 AND s_resist_n = 0) AND (going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_folded_n >= 2 AND s_resist_n = 0) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

415

A/E

1.02

winners vs the prices

SP return

-15.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+0.1%

413 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.2%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ82-jumps-folds-when-challenged Discovery → KILLED import: best [soft or heavy] AMBER A/E 1.175 on 113 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ82-jumps-folds-when-challenged (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ82-jumps-folds-when-challenged (soft or heavy): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ82-jumps-folds-when-challenged (ten runners or fewer): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ82-jumps-folds-when-challenged (three miles or more): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ82-jumps-folds-when-challenged (stiff finish): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. import result for IQ82-jumps-folds-when-challenged (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

8. import result for IQ82-jumps-folds-when-challenged (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

9. New idea IQ82-jumps-folds-when-challenged: IQ82: jumps folds when challenged (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.