IQ90: control challenged when in front

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: jumps; in an earlier jumps run it was in front in the second half of the race and was headed or challenged, whatever it did next. What being that kind of horse is worth.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_challenged_n >= 1

Reads: race_type, t_challenged_n

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND t_challenged_n >= 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

5,508

A/E

0.99

winners vs the prices

SP return

-17.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+1.1%

5,488 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ90-control-challenged-when-in-front Discovery → KILLED import: control; best [broad] RED A/E 0.987 on 5508 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ90-control-challenged-when-in-front (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ90-control-challenged-when-in-front: IQ90: control challenged when in front (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.