System: Proven winners at the foot of a handicap chase

Mechanism and rationale

The same idea kept to chases, where the market undervalues it most.

The rule

is_handicap = 1 AND race_type = 'Chase' AND prior_wins >= 2 AND weight_rank_low <= 2

Reads: is_handicap, race_type, prior_wins, weight_rank_low

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Backing

none

Kind

system

Live from

2026-10-13

Matched

none

Published

true

Rules

• The race is a handicap chase.
• The horse has won at least twice (since July 2020).
• It carries one of the two lowest weights in the race.

Source

Gary

System id

proven-winners-low-weights-chases

Tier

none

Where

is_handicap = 1 AND race_type = 'Chase' AND prior_wins >= 2 AND weight_rank_low <= 2

Discovery result

Not measured yet.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. hypothesis note SYS-proven-winners-low-weights-chases

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. New idea SYS-proven-winners-low-weights-chases: System: Proven winners at the foot of a handicap chase (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Live.