Hypotheses · dan-second-jockey · TD1-durrell-on-dan
TD1: durrell on dan
best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.139 on 580 bets
Starts the thread “TD1: durrell on dan” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
CONTROL: Tristan Durrell on a Dan Skelton runner, chase or hurdle.
The rule
trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND jockey = 'Tristan Durrell'Reads: trainer, race_type, jockey
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND jockey = 'Tristan Durrell'
- Kind
history
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 580
- A/E
- 1.14
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -2.6%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +61.8%
- 227 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 12.8%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
TD1-durrell-on-dan Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.139 on 580 bets
· importer
import result for TD1-durrell-on-dan (broad): info
· importer
New idea TD1-durrell-on-dan: TD1: durrell on dan (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.