Hypotheses · old-chasers · VET1-old-chasers
VET1: old chasers
best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.086 on 2002 bets
Starts the thread “VET1: old chasers” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
CONTROL: every chaser aged 10 or more.
The rule
race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10
Reads: race_type, age
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10
- Kind
remarks
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 2,002
- A/E
- 1.09
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -12.7%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +14.0%
- 2,002 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 10.1%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
VET1-old-chasers Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.086 on 2002 bets
· importer
import result for VET1-old-chasers (broad): info
· importer
New idea VET1-old-chasers: VET1: old chasers (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.