FS3: old weak finish

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   FS3: old weak finish KILLED amber

   because Aged 10+, chase, last-time finishing speed in the bottom third. Predicted level or below.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND l_fsp_pct IS NOT NULL AND l_fsp_pct <= 0.33

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.21 on 385 bets, by period 1.30 · 0.92. info

   Betfair SP return +0.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.92 to 1.30. Zone: all. On FS3: old weak finish

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3021.30

   Later half830.92

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   FS3: old weak finish Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.212 on 385 bets