FS3: old weak finish

Mechanism and rationale

Aged 10+, chase, last-time finishing speed in the bottom third. Predicted level or below.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND l_fsp_pct IS NOT NULL AND l_fsp_pct <= 0.33

Reads: race_type, age, last_race_type, l_same_code, last_position, l_fsp_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND l_fsp_pct IS NOT NULL AND l_fsp_pct <= 0.33

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

385

A/E

1.21

winners vs the prices

SP return

-19.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+0.8%

385 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. FS3-old-weak-finish Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.212 on 385 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for FS3-old-weak-finish (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea FS3-old-weak-finish: FS3: old weak finish (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.