H03: back on winning ground

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H03: back on winning ground KILLED red

   because Beaten last time on different going; today back on the going group it last won on.

   going_group = last_win_going AND last_going_group != last_win_going AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.00 on 47,870 bets, by period 1.03 · 0.98 · 1.01. info

   Betfair SP return -1.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.03. Zone: all. On H03: back on winning ground

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2215,2761.03

   2023 to a year ago24,0340.98

   Last year8,5601.01

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H03: back on winning ground Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.005 on 47870 bets (broad RED)