H03: back on winning ground

Mechanism and rationale

Beaten last time on different going; today back on the going group it last won on.

The rule

going_group = last_win_going AND last_going_group != last_win_going AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

Reads: going_group, last_win_going, last_going_group, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

going_group = last_win_going AND last_going_group != last_win_going AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

47,870

A/E

1.00

winners vs the prices

SP return

-20.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-1.2%

8,523 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 11.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H03-back-on-winning-ground Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.005 on 47870 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H03-back-on-winning-ground (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H03-back-on-winning-ground: H03: back on winning ground (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.