Threads · trainer · H08-yard-out-of-form
H08: yard out of form
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.994 on 46921 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H08: yard out of form KILLED red
because The yard has had half the winners its prices implied over the last 30 days (20+ runners): something is wrong.
t30_runs >= 20 AND t30_wins <= 0.5 * t30_exp
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.99 on 46,921 bets, by period 0.98 · 1.01 · 0.99. info
Betfair SP return -1.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.01. Zone: all. On H08: yard out of form
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-2219,5530.982023 to a year ago19,4211.01Last year7,9470.99Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H08: yard out of form Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.994 on 46921 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
The yard has had half the winners its prices implied over the last 30 days (20+ runners): something is wrong.