Hypotheses · trainer · H08-yard-out-of-form
H08: yard out of form
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.994 on 46921 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H08: yard out of form” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
The yard has had half the winners its prices implied over the last 30 days (20+ runners): something is wrong.
The rule
t30_runs >= 20 AND t30_wins <= 0.5 * t30_exp
Reads: t30_runs, t30_wins, t30_exp
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
t30_runs >= 20 AND t30_wins <= 0.5 * t30_exp
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 46,921
- A/E
- 0.99
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -27.2%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -1.4%
- 7,919 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 9.2%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H08-yard-out-of-form Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.994 on 46921 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H08-yard-out-of-form (broad): info
· importer
New idea H08-yard-out-of-form: H08: yard out of form (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.