H101: pulled up on soft now on good

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H101: pulled up on soft now on good KILLED red

   because Failed to finish on soft or heavy last time; today the ground is good or faster. The ground beat it, not the race.

   last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.02 on 3,100 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.00 · 1.08. info

   Betfair SP return +61.4%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.08. Zone: all. On H101: pulled up on soft now on good

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,2181.02

   2023 to a year ago1,4891.00

   Last year3931.08

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H101: pulled up on soft now on good Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.02 on 3100 bets (broad RED)