Hypotheses · letters · H101-pulled-up-on-soft-now-on-good
H101: pulled up on soft now on good
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.02 on 3100 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H101: pulled up on soft now on good” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Failed to finish on soft or heavy last time; today the ground is good or faster. The ground beat it, not the race.
The rule
last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')Reads: last_position, prior_runs, last_going_group, going_group, race_type
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 3,100
- A/E
- 1.02
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -21.9%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +61.4%
- 393 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 7.5%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H101-pulled-up-on-soft-now-on-good Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.02 on 3100 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H101-pulled-up-on-soft-now-on-good (broad): info
· importer
New idea H101-pulled-up-on-soft-now-on-good: H101: pulled up on soft now on good (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.