H103: second try at a new code

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H103: second try at a new code PROMISING negative

   because Unplaced on its first run over hurdles or fences; today is its second. The first one was the lesson.

   race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND prior_type_runs = 1 AND last_race_type = race_type AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.96 on 22,203 bets, by period 0.98 · 0.95 · 0.92. info

   Betfair SP return +14.1%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H103: second try at a new code

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2211,9490.98

   2023 to a year ago7,5150.95

   Last year2,7390.92

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase: A/E 1.02 on 5,494 bets, by period 1.05 · 0.99 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -25.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H103: second try at a new code

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223,2611.05

   2023 to a year ago1,6310.99

   Last year6020.96

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   hurdle: A/E 0.93 on 16,709 bets, by period 0.94 · 0.92 · 0.89. info

   Betfair SP return +25.2%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H103: second try at a new code

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-228,6880.94

   2023 to a year ago5,8840.92

   Last year2,1370.89

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.95 on 7,546 bets, by period 0.97 · 0.94 · 0.91. info

   Betfair SP return -15.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H103: second try at a new code

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224,3100.97

   2023 to a year ago2,3700.94

   Last year8660.91

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumping error on the first one: A/E 1.01 on 666 bets, by period 1.01. info

   Betfair SP return +90.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On H103: second try at a new code

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year6661.01

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H103: second try at a new code Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [hurdle] NEGATIVE A/E 0.929 on 16709 bets (broad RED)