H103: second try at a new code

Mechanism and rationale

Unplaced on its first run over hurdles or fences; today is its second. The first one was the lesson.

The rule

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND prior_type_runs = 1 AND last_race_type = race_type AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)

Reads: race_type, prior_type_runs, last_race_type, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND prior_type_runs = 1 AND last_race_type = race_type AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND prior_type_runs = 1 AND last_race_type = race_type AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "hurdle",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND prior_type_runs = 1 AND last_race_type = race_type AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)) AND (race_type = 'Hurdle')"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND prior_type_runs = 1 AND last_race_type = race_type AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumping error on the first one",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND prior_type_runs = 1 AND last_race_type = race_type AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)) AND (last_jumping_error = 1)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info jumping error on the first one · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

666

A/E

1.01

winners vs the prices

SP return

+5.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+90.6%

666 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 6.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H103-second-try-at-a-new-code Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [hurdle] NEGATIVE A/E 0.929 on 16709 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H103-second-try-at-a-new-code (jumping error on the first one): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H103-second-try-at-a-new-code (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H103-second-try-at-a-new-code (hurdle): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H103-second-try-at-a-new-code (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H103-second-try-at-a-new-code (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H103-second-try-at-a-new-code: H103: second try at a new code (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.