Threads · trainer-move · H107-yard-good-second-run-back
H107: yard good second run back
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.023 on 3987 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H107: yard good second run back KILLED red
because Second run after a long break from a yard whose earlier second-run-back horses beat the market by 30%+: its horses need the first one.
tx_second_back_runs >= 20 AND tx_second_back_wins >= 1.3 * tx_second_back_exp
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.02 on 3,987 bets, by period 1.08 · 0.92 · 1.17. info
Betfair SP return +7.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.92 to 1.17. Zone: all. On H107: yard good second run back
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,1681.082023 to a year ago2,0390.92Last year7801.17Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H107: yard good second run back Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.023 on 3987 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Second run after a long break from a yard whose earlier second-run-back horses beat the market by 30%+: its horses need the first one.