Hypotheses · trainer-move · H107-yard-good-second-run-back
H107: yard good second run back
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.023 on 3987 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H107: yard good second run back” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Second run after a long break from a yard whose earlier second-run-back horses beat the market by 30%+: its horses need the first one.
The rule
tx_second_back_runs >= 20 AND tx_second_back_wins >= 1.3 * tx_second_back_exp
Reads: tx_second_back_runs, tx_second_back_wins, tx_second_back_exp
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
tx_second_back_runs >= 20 AND tx_second_back_wins >= 1.3 * tx_second_back_exp
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 3,987
- A/E
- 1.02
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -23.4%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +7.8%
- 779 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 12.9%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H107-yard-good-second-run-back Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.023 on 3987 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H107-yard-good-second-run-back (broad): info
· importer
New idea H107-yard-good-second-run-back: H107: yard good second run back (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.