H116: horse that needs a run

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H116: horse that needs a run PROMISING green

   because NEGATIVE: first run for 150+ days by a horse that has come back from a break twice or more and never won first time.

   days_since_last_run >= 150 AND horse_fresh_runs >= 2 AND horse_fresh_wins = 0 AND prior_wins >= 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.05 on 5,752 bets, by period 0.26 · 1.02 · 1.14. info

   Betfair SP return +8.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.26 to 1.14. Zone: all. On H116: horse that needs a run

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22560.26

   2023 to a year ago3,9631.02

   Last year1,7331.14

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   favourite or second favourite: A/E 1.08 on 642 bets, by period 1.07 · 1.15. info

   Betfair SP return +17.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.08). Zone: all. On H116: horse that needs a run

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-227–

   2023 to a year ago4461.07

   Last year1891.15

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 1.06 on 3,251 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.18. info

   Betfair SP return +8.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.16). Zone: all. On H116: horse that needs a run

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2229–

   2023 to a year ago2,1801.02

   Last year1,0421.18

5. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H116: horse that needs a run Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [favourite or second favourite] GREEN A/E 1.079 on 642 bets (broad AMBER)

6. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H116-horse-that-needs-a-run (H116: horse that needs a run) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.05 on 5752 bets (periods 0.26 / 1.02 / 1.14); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H116-horse-that-needs-a-run