H116: horse that needs a run

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: first run for 150+ days by a horse that has come back from a break twice or more and never won first time.

The rule

days_since_last_run >= 150 AND horse_fresh_runs >= 2 AND horse_fresh_wins = 0 AND prior_wins >= 1

Reads: days_since_last_run, horse_fresh_runs, horse_fresh_wins, prior_wins

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

days_since_last_run >= 150 AND horse_fresh_runs >= 2 AND horse_fresh_wins = 0 AND prior_wins >= 1

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "favourite or second favourite",
    "rule": "(days_since_last_run >= 150 AND horse_fresh_runs >= 2 AND horse_fresh_wins = 0 AND prior_wins >= 1) AND (sp_rank <= 2)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(days_since_last_run >= 150 AND horse_fresh_runs >= 2 AND horse_fresh_wins = 0 AND prior_wins >= 1) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info jumps · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

3,251

A/E

1.06

winners vs the prices

SP return

-20.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+8.4%

1,036 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H116-horse-that-needs-a-run Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [favourite or second favourite] GREEN A/E 1.079 on 642 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H116-horse-that-needs-a-run (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H116-horse-that-needs-a-run (favourite or second favourite): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H116-horse-that-needs-a-run (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H116-horse-that-needs-a-run: H116: horse that needs a run (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.