H119: two reasons to forgive

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H119: two reasons to forgive PROMISING amber

   because Two or more separate reasons its last run undersells it (wide and close, stopped mid-move, eased out when held up, one-off jumping error, or put out of the race).

   (coalesce((last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_momentum_interrupted = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield')), 0) + coalesce((remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)), 0) + coalesce((last_code IN ('BD', 'UR', 'F')), 0)) >= 2

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.13 on 254 bets, by period 1.34 · 0.90. info

   Betfair SP return -8.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.34. Zone: all. On H119: two reasons to forgive

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1221.34

   Later half1320.90

3. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H119: two reasons to forgive Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.133 on 254 bets (broad AMBER)