H119: two reasons to forgive

Mechanism and rationale

Two or more separate reasons its last run undersells it (wide and close, stopped mid-move, eased out when held up, one-off jumping error, or put out of the race).

The rule

(coalesce((last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_momentum_interrupted = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield')), 0) + coalesce((remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)), 0) + coalesce((last_code IN ('BD', 'UR', 'F')), 0)) >= 2

Reads: last_raced_wide, last_position, last_beaten_lengths, last_momentum_interrupted, last_pulled_up, last_run_style, remarked_last3, jumping_errors_last3, last_jumping_error, last_code

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

(coalesce((last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_momentum_interrupted = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield')), 0) + coalesce((remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)), 0) + coalesce((last_code IN ('BD', 'UR', 'F')), 0)) >= 2

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

254

A/E

1.13

winners vs the prices

SP return

-27.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-8.6%

253 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 9.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H119-two-reasons-to-forgive Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.133 on 254 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H119-two-reasons-to-forgive (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H119-two-reasons-to-forgive: H119: two reasons to forgive (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.