H12: yard good at handicap debuts

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H12: yard good at handicap debuts PROMISING green

   because First run in a handicap from a yard whose earlier handicap debutants beat the market by 30%+.

   tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.09 on 4,046 bets, by period 1.13 · 1.00 · 1.34. info

   Betfair SP return +41.0%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.34. Zone: all. On H12: yard good at handicap debuts

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,2691.13

   2023 to a year ago2,1851.00

   Last year5921.34

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 1.07 on 2,663 bets, by period 1.15 · 1.00 · 1.24. info

   Betfair SP return +28.6%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.24. Zone: all. On H12: yard good at handicap debuts

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-229051.15

   2023 to a year ago1,4471.00

   Last year3111.24

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 1.11 on 1,382 bets, by period 1.10 · 1.02 · 1.43. info

   Betfair SP return +54.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.41). Zone: all. On H12: yard good at handicap debuts

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223641.10

   2023 to a year ago7371.02

   Last year2811.43

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   up in trip too: A/E 1.07 on 942 bets, by period 1.25 · 1.00 · 0.90. info

   Betfair SP return +7.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.25. Zone: all. On H12: yard good at handicap debuts

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222931.25

   2023 to a year ago4971.00

   Last year1520.90

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H12: yard good at handicap debuts Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [jumps] GREEN A/E 1.113 on 1382 bets (broad GREEN)

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H12-yard-good-at-handicap-debuts (H12: yard good at handicap debuts) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.09 on 4046 bets (periods 1.13 / 1.00 / 1.34); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H12-yard-good-at-handicap-debuts