H12: yard good at handicap debuts

Mechanism and rationale

First run in a handicap from a yard whose earlier handicap debutants beat the market by 30%+.

The rule

tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp

Reads: tx_hcap_debut_runs, tx_hcap_debut_wins, tx_hcap_debut_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "up in trip too",
    "rule": "(tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp) AND (distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.2)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info up in trip too · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

942

A/E

1.07

winners vs the prices

SP return

-16.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+7.2%

152 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H12-yard-good-at-handicap-debuts Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [jumps] GREEN A/E 1.113 on 1382 bets (broad GREEN)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H12-yard-good-at-handicap-debuts (up in trip too): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H12-yard-good-at-handicap-debuts (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H12-yard-good-at-handicap-debuts (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H12-yard-good-at-handicap-debuts (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H12-yard-good-at-handicap-debuts: H12: yard good at handicap debuts (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.