H123: course and distance winner returns

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H123: course and distance winner returns KILLED red

   because A previous winner over this course and distance, back here after a run somewhere else or over a different trip.

   cd_wins >= 1 AND (last_course_id != course_id OR abs(distance_yards - last_distance_yards) > 220) AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.98 on 42,786 bets, by period 1.01 · 0.99 · 0.95. info

   Betfair SP return -11.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.01. Zone: all. On H123: course and distance winner returns

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2211,2531.01

   2023 to a year ago22,5940.99

   Last year8,939

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H123: course and distance winner returns Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.984 on 42786 bets (broad RED)