Hypotheses · course · H123-course-and-distance-winner-returns
H123: course and distance winner returns
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.984 on 42786 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H123: course and distance winner returns” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
A previous winner over this course and distance, back here after a run somewhere else or over a different trip.
The rule
cd_wins >= 1 AND (last_course_id != course_id OR abs(distance_yards - last_distance_yards) > 220) AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)
Reads: cd_wins, last_course_id, course_id, distance_yards, last_distance_yards, last_position
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
cd_wins >= 1 AND (last_course_id != course_id OR abs(distance_yards - last_distance_yards) > 220) AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 42,786
- A/E
- 0.98
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -21.6%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -11.9%
- 8,896 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 11.8%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H123-course-and-distance-winner-returns Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.984 on 42786 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H123-course-and-distance-winner-returns (broad): info
· importer
New idea H123-course-and-distance-winner-returns: H123: course and distance winner returns (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.