H124: fit hurdler making its chase debut

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H124: fit hurdler making its chase debut KILLED red

   because Chase debut within 30 days of a hurdle run, by a hurdle winner: sent chasing while fit, not after a break.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND chase_runs = 0 AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 30 AND hurdle_wins >= 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.91 on 1,173 bets, by period 1.04 · 0.81 · 0.87. info

   Betfair SP return -27.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.81 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H124: fit hurdler making its chase debut

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224491.04

   2023 to a year ago5260.81

   Last year1980.87

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   from a yard good at chase debuts: A/E 0.84 on 104 bets, by period 0.79. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H124: fit hurdler making its chase debut

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2223–

   2023 to a year ago630.79

   Last year18–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 0.92 on 663 bets, by period 1.12 · 0.82 · 0.82. info

   Betfair SP return -38.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.82 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H124: fit hurdler making its chase debut

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222241.12

   2023 to a year ago3190.82

   Last year1200.82

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   aged 7 or under: A/E 0.87 on 938 bets, by period 1.07 · 0.74 · 0.79. info

   Betfair SP return -27.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.74 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H124: fit hurdler making its chase debut

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223541.07

   2023 to a year ago4240.74

   Last year160

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H124: fit hurdler making its chase debut Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [handicap] RED A/E 0.924 on 663 bets (broad RED)

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H124-fit-hurdler-making-its-chase-debut (H124: fit hurdler making its chase debut) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.91 on 1173 bets (periods 1.04 / 0.81 / 0.87).

   surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom H124-fit-hurdler-making-its-chase-debut