H124: fit hurdler making its chase debut

Mechanism and rationale

Chase debut within 30 days of a hurdle run, by a hurdle winner: sent chasing while fit, not after a break.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND chase_runs = 0 AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 30 AND hurdle_wins >= 1

Reads: race_type, chase_runs, last_race_type, days_since_last_run, hurdle_wins

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND chase_runs = 0 AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 30 AND hurdle_wins >= 1

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "from a yard good at chase debuts",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND chase_runs = 0 AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 30 AND hurdle_wins >= 1) AND (tx_chase_debut_runs >= 15 AND tx_chase_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_chase_debut_exp)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND chase_runs = 0 AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 30 AND hurdle_wins >= 1) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "aged 7 or under",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND chase_runs = 0 AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 30 AND hurdle_wins >= 1) AND (age <= 7)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info aged 7 or under · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

938

A/E

0.87

winners vs the prices

SP return

-31.0%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-27.2%

160 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 13.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H124-fit-hurdler-making-its-chase-debut Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [handicap] RED A/E 0.924 on 663 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H124-fit-hurdler-making-its-chase-debut (aged 7 or under): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H124-fit-hurdler-making-its-chase-debut (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H124-fit-hurdler-making-its-chase-debut (from a yard good at chase debuts): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H124-fit-hurdler-making-its-chase-debut (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H124-fit-hurdler-making-its-chase-debut: H124: fit hurdler making its chase debut (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.