Threads · age-career · H166-late-starter-on-the-flat
H166: late starter on the flat
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.985 on 18995 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H166: late starter on the flat KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: a Flat horse aged four or more with two or fewer runs, none over jumps. A horse that could not be got to the track at two or three has had problems, yet its lack of exposure reads as potential.
race_type = 'Flat' AND age >= 4 AND prior_runs <= 2 AND hurdle_runs = 0 AND chase_runs = 0 AND flat_runs = prior_runs
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.98 on 18,995 bets, by period 0.99 · 0.92 · 0.96. info
Betfair SP return +103.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H166: late starter on the flat
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-2215,4430.992023 to a year ago2,5410.92Last year1,0110.96Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H166: late starter on the flat Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.985 on 18995 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: a Flat horse aged four or more with two or fewer runs, none over jumps. A horse that could not be got to the track at two or three has had problems, yet its lack of exposure reads as potential.