Hypotheses · age-career · H166-late-starter-on-the-flat
H166: late starter on the flat
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.985 on 18995 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H166: late starter on the flat” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: a Flat horse aged four or more with two or fewer runs, none over jumps. A horse that could not be got to the track at two or three has had problems, yet its lack of exposure reads as potential.
The rule
race_type = 'Flat' AND age >= 4 AND prior_runs <= 2 AND hurdle_runs = 0 AND chase_runs = 0 AND flat_runs = prior_runs
Reads: race_type, age, prior_runs, hurdle_runs, chase_runs, flat_runs
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Flat' AND age >= 4 AND prior_runs <= 2 AND hurdle_runs = 0 AND chase_runs = 0 AND flat_runs = prior_runs
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 18,995
- A/E
- 0.98
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -35.3%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +103.7%
- 982 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 7.7%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H166-late-starter-on-the-flat Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.985 on 18995 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H166-late-starter-on-the-flat (broad): info
· importer
New idea H166-late-starter-on-the-flat: H166: late starter on the flat (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.