H169: three year old hurdle debut fit from the flat

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H169: three year old hurdle debut fit from the flat KILLED red

   because A three-year-old's first hurdle from July to October, having run on the Flat within 45 days: early juvenile hurdles go to the fit, hardened Flat horse, not the one being brought along.

   race_type = 'Hurdle' AND age = 3 AND hurdle_runs = 0 AND last_race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND month BETWEEN 7 AND 10

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.02 on 425 bets, by period 0.90 · 1.18 · 0.97. info

   Betfair SP return -69.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.18. Zone: all. On H169: three year old hurdle debut fit from the flat

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222100.90

   2023 to a year ago1671.18

   Last year48

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H169: three year old hurdle debut fit from the flat Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.022 on 425 bets (broad RED)