Hypotheses · age-hurdle · H169-three-year-old-hurdle-debut-fit-from-the-flat
H169: three year old hurdle debut fit from the flat
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.022 on 425 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H169: three year old hurdle debut fit from the flat” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
A three-year-old's first hurdle from July to October, having run on the Flat within 45 days: early juvenile hurdles go to the fit, hardened Flat horse, not the one being brought along.
The rule
race_type = 'Hurdle' AND age = 3 AND hurdle_runs = 0 AND last_race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND month BETWEEN 7 AND 10
Reads: race_type, age, hurdle_runs, last_race_type, days_since_last_run, month
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Hurdle' AND age = 3 AND hurdle_runs = 0 AND last_race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND month BETWEEN 7 AND 10
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 425
- A/E
- 1.02
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -25.7%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -69.8%
- 48 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 10.1%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H169-three-year-old-hurdle-debut-fit-from-the-flat Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.022 on 425 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H169-three-year-old-hurdle-debut-fit-from-the-flat (broad): info
· importer
New idea H169-three-year-old-hurdle-debut-fit-from-the-flat: H169: three year old hurdle debut fit from the flat (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.