Threads · age-track · H176-old-legs-over-two-miles-at-a-sharp-track
H176: old legs over two miles at a sharp track
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.01 on 1013 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H176: old legs over two miles at a sharp track KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: aged ten or more in a chase over 2m2f or less at a sharp or speed track. Speed is what age takes first, and a sharp two miles gives nowhere to hide.
race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND distance_yards <= 3960 AND (track_speed_track = 1 OR track_sharpness >= 2)
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.01 on 1,013 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.06 · 0.75. info
Betfair SP return -44.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.75 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H176: old legs over two miles at a sharp track
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-224751.022023 to a year ago4381.06Last year1000.75Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H176: old legs over two miles at a sharp track Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.01 on 1013 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: aged ten or more in a chase over 2m2f or less at a sharp or speed track. Speed is what age takes first, and a sharp two miles gives nowhere to hide.