Hypotheses · age-track · H176-old-legs-over-two-miles-at-a-sharp-track
H176: old legs over two miles at a sharp track
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.01 on 1013 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H176: old legs over two miles at a sharp track” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: aged ten or more in a chase over 2m2f or less at a sharp or speed track. Speed is what age takes first, and a sharp two miles gives nowhere to hide.
The rule
race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND distance_yards <= 3960 AND (track_speed_track = 1 OR track_sharpness >= 2)
Reads: race_type, age, distance_yards, track_speed_track, track_sharpness
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND distance_yards <= 3960 AND (track_speed_track = 1 OR track_sharpness >= 2)
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 1,013
- A/E
- 1.01
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -20.1%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -44.3%
- 100 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 8.7%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H176-old-legs-over-two-miles-at-a-sharp-track Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.01 on 1013 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H176-old-legs-over-two-miles-at-a-sharp-track (broad): info
· importer
New idea H176-old-legs-over-two-miles-at-a-sharp-track: H176: old legs over two miles at a sharp track (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.