H187: galloping track winner back on one after a sharp one

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H187: galloping track winner back on one after a sharp one KILLED red

   because Unplaced at a sharp track last time, has won on a galloping track, and is back on one today: a long-striding horse that could not use itself round the bends.

   track_sharpness = 0 AND last_track_sharpness >= 2 AND prior_character_wins >= 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.99 on 9,409 bets, by period 0.96 · 1.04 · 0.93. info

   Betfair SP return -28.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H187: galloping track winner back on one after a sharp one

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,5940.96

   2023 to a year ago4,9631.04

   Last year1,852

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H187: galloping track winner back on one after a sharp one Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.995 on 9409 bets (broad RED)