Hypotheses · track-shape · H187-galloping-track-winner-back-on-one-after-a-sharp-one
H187: galloping track winner back on one after a sharp one
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.995 on 9409 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H187: galloping track winner back on one after a sharp one” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Unplaced at a sharp track last time, has won on a galloping track, and is back on one today: a long-striding horse that could not use itself round the bends.
The rule
track_sharpness = 0 AND last_track_sharpness >= 2 AND prior_character_wins >= 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)
Reads: track_sharpness, last_track_sharpness, prior_character_wins, last_position
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
track_sharpness = 0 AND last_track_sharpness >= 2 AND prior_character_wins >= 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 9,409
- A/E
- 0.99
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -30.6%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -28.4%
- 1,852 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 8.3%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H187-galloping-track-winner-back-on-one-after-a-sharp-one Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.995 on 9409 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H187-galloping-track-winner-back-on-one-after-a-sharp-one (broad): info
· importer
New idea H187-galloping-track-winner-back-on-one-after-a-sharp-one: H187: galloping track winner back on one after a sharp one (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.