H188: leader from a galloping track to a sharp one

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H188: leader from a galloping track to a sharp one PROMISING negative

   because Led last time at a galloping track and was beaten; today at a sharp track. A long straight is where front-runners are caught, and a sharp track is where they are not.

   last_run_style = 'led' AND last_track_sharpness = 0 AND track_sharpness >= 2 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.91 on 725 bets, by period 0.96 · 0.89. info

   Betfair SP return -7.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H188: leader from a galloping track to a sharp one

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2480.96

   Later half4770.89

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 0.85 on 453 bets, by period 0.78 · 0.87. info

   Betfair SP return +2.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H188: leader from a galloping track to a sharp one

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half770.78

   Later half3760.87

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   the track favours prominent racers: A/E 0.86 on 324 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.79. info

   Betfair SP return -27.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.79 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H188: leader from a galloping track to a sharp one

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1021.00

   Later half2220.79

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   weakened last time: A/E 0.88 on 479 bets, by period 1.04 · 0.79. info

   Betfair SP return -7.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.79 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H188: leader from a galloping track to a sharp one

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1581.04

   Later half3210.79

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H188: leader from a galloping track to a sharp one Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [Flat] NEGATIVE A/E 0.852 on 453 bets (broad NEGATIVE)