H188: leader from a galloping track to a sharp one

Mechanism and rationale

Led last time at a galloping track and was beaten; today at a sharp track. A long straight is where front-runners are caught, and a sharp track is where they are not.

The rule

last_run_style = 'led' AND last_track_sharpness = 0 AND track_sharpness >= 2 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

Reads: last_run_style, last_track_sharpness, track_sharpness, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_run_style = 'led' AND last_track_sharpness = 0 AND track_sharpness >= 2 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(last_run_style = 'led' AND last_track_sharpness = 0 AND track_sharpness >= 2 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "the track favours prominent racers",
    "rule": "(last_run_style = 'led' AND last_track_sharpness = 0 AND track_sharpness >= 2 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)) AND (track_pace_bias = 'prominent')"
  },
  {
    "name": "weakened last time",
    "rule": "(last_run_style = 'led' AND last_track_sharpness = 0 AND track_sharpness >= 2 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)) AND (last_weak_finish = 1)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info weakened last time · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

479

A/E

0.88

winners vs the prices

SP return

-26.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-7.0%

477 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 9.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H188-leader-from-a-galloping-track-to-a-sharp-one Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [Flat] NEGATIVE A/E 0.852 on 453 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H188-leader-from-a-galloping-track-to-a-sharp-one (weakened last time): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H188-leader-from-a-galloping-track-to-a-sharp-one (the track favours prominent racers): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H188-leader-from-a-galloping-track-to-a-sharp-one (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H188-leader-from-a-galloping-track-to-a-sharp-one (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H188-leader-from-a-galloping-track-to-a-sharp-one: H188: leader from a galloping track to a sharp one (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.