Threads · race-betting · H200-outsider-in-a-small-field
H200: outsider in a small field
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.002 on 5942 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H200: outsider in a small field KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: fourth choice or worse in a field of five or fewer, at 10/1 or shorter. The mirror image: the price looks playable only because there are few runners; it is still the one nobody wants.
field_size <= 5 AND sp_rank >= 4 AND sp_decimal <= 11
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.00 on 5,942 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.02 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return +3.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H200: outsider in a small field
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222,4530.972023 to a year ago2,4441.02Last year1,0451.02Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H200: outsider in a small field Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.002 on 5942 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: fourth choice or worse in a field of five or fewer, at 10/1 or shorter. The mirror image: the price looks playable only because there are few runners; it is still the one nobody wants.