Hypotheses · race-betting · H200-outsider-in-a-small-field
H200: outsider in a small field
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.002 on 5942 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H200: outsider in a small field” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: fourth choice or worse in a field of five or fewer, at 10/1 or shorter. The mirror image: the price looks playable only because there are few runners; it is still the one nobody wants.
The rule
field_size <= 5 AND sp_rank >= 4 AND sp_decimal <= 11
Reads: field_size, sp_rank, sp_decimal
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
field_size <= 5 AND sp_rank >= 4 AND sp_decimal <= 11
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 5,942
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -10.0%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +3.1%
- 1,038 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 11.8%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H200-outsider-in-a-small-field Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.002 on 5942 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H200-outsider-in-a-small-field (broad): info
· importer
New idea H200-outsider-in-a-small-field: H200: outsider in a small field (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.