H218: lightly campaigned at the back end

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H218: lightly campaigned at the back end KILLED amber

   because Turf Flat handicap in October and November: an experienced horse with only one to three runs in the last 150 days, the latest within 60 days. Fresh legs when the others have had enough.

   race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11) AND runs_150 BETWEEN 1 AND 3 AND days_since_last_run <= 60 AND prior_runs >= 6

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.07 on 2,451 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.11 · 1.12. info

   Betfair SP return +5.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H218: lightly campaigned at the back end

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-228780.99

   2023 to a year ago1,0641.11

   Last year5091.12

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   soft or heavy: A/E 1.08 on 1,524 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.19 · 0.90. info

   Betfair SP return -12.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.19. Zone: all. On H218: lightly campaigned at the back end

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225461.01

   2023 to a year ago6921.19

   Last year2860.90

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   aged four or more: A/E 1.02 on 1,811 bets, by period 0.90 · 1.09 · 1.06. info

   Betfair SP return -0.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H218: lightly campaigned at the back end

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-226210.90

   2023 to a year ago8111.09

   Last year379

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.05 on 1,372 bets, by period 1.03 · 1.02 · 1.13. info

   Betfair SP return +13.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.11). Zone: all. On H218: lightly campaigned at the back end

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224591.03

   2023 to a year ago6211.02

   Last year2921.13

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H218: lightly campaigned at the back end Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [soft or heavy] AMBER A/E 1.079 on 1524 bets (broad AMBER)