H218: lightly campaigned at the back end

Mechanism and rationale

Turf Flat handicap in October and November: an experienced horse with only one to three runs in the last 150 days, the latest within 60 days. Fresh legs when the others have had enough.

The rule

race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11) AND runs_150 BETWEEN 1 AND 3 AND days_since_last_run <= 60 AND prior_runs >= 6

Reads: race_type, surface, is_handicap, month, runs_150, days_since_last_run, prior_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11) AND runs_150 BETWEEN 1 AND 3 AND days_since_last_run <= 60 AND prior_runs >= 6

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "soft or heavy",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11) AND runs_150 BETWEEN 1 AND 3 AND days_since_last_run <= 60 AND prior_runs >= 6) AND (going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "aged four or more",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11) AND runs_150 BETWEEN 1 AND 3 AND days_since_last_run <= 60 AND prior_runs >= 6) AND (age >= 4)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11) AND runs_150 BETWEEN 1 AND 3 AND days_since_last_run <= 60 AND prior_runs >= 6) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,372

A/E

1.05

winners vs the prices

SP return

-15.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+13.8%

272 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 12.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H218-lightly-campaigned-at-the-back-end Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [soft or heavy] AMBER A/E 1.079 on 1524 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H218-lightly-campaigned-at-the-back-end (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H218-lightly-campaigned-at-the-back-end (aged four or more): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H218-lightly-campaigned-at-the-back-end (soft or heavy): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H218-lightly-campaigned-at-the-back-end (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H218-lightly-campaigned-at-the-back-end: H218: lightly campaigned at the back end (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.